October could still hold election surprises ahead

This article was first published in the On the Trail 2024 newsletter. Sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox on Tuesday and Friday mornings here. To submit a question to next week’s Friday Mailbag, email [email protected].
Hello, friends. This is Suzanne Bates, politics editor at the Deseret News. Politics reporter Gitanjali Poonia and I are pinch-hitting for Samuel today while he’s on the road in Pennsylvania. And, just so you know, there are only 31 days until Election Day.
October could still hold election surprises ahead
A dockworkers’ strike that led to a run on toilet paper and water bottles looked like it had the potential to change the upcoming presidential election. But the Biden administration was able to help temporarily halt the strike, after the International Longshoremen’s Association agreed to tell its members to head back to work after they were promised 62% wage increases over six years. This likely led Vice President Kamala Harris to breathe a sigh of relief.
Election watchers refer to a late-breaking event that changes the course of an election as an “October surprise.”
But in a year when there has been a new reality-altering event every few weeks — from President Joe Biden dropping out of the race, to former President Donald Trump surviving two assassination attempts — maybe voters are a little more shock-proof than normal.
There are several ongoing events that in other years might change the course of an election, but so far they don’t seem to be remaking this year’s race.
Hurricane Helene is the deadliest storm to hit the U.S. since Hurricane Katrina, with over 200 people reportedly killed and many more still missing. Trump has criticized Biden’s and Harris’ response to the disaster, as has Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who said the Biden administration wasn’t moving fast enough to provide aid.
Harris and Biden have pushed back on that characterization, and both have visited the areas affected, as has Trump.
Trump is also trying to blame Harris and Biden for the spiraling conflict in the Middle East, where Israel is now facing war with Iran and with Hezbollah in Lebanon. The U.S. has sent additional troops to the region.
“The world is on fire and spiraling out of control,” Trump said in a written statement. “We have no leadership, no one running the country. We have a non-existent president in Joe Biden, and a completely absent vice-president, Kamala Harris, who is too busy fundraising in San Francisco.”
But Trump could be facing an October surprise of his own, as he continues to face questions about his actions following the 2020 election. This week, a legal brief written by special prosecutor Jack Smith arguing Trump should not be immune from prosecution, was released.
Biden’s Iran envoy Robert Malley left the administration abruptly after losing his security clearance, and is now under investigation by the FBI for allegedly mishandling classified documents. Malley was the architect of the Iran nuclear deal, negotiated during the Obama administration, that many in the foreign policy world said was lopsided. When Trump was elected, he canceled the agreement, but it was resurrected when Biden won. Now, Secretary of State Antony Blinken says Iran is only two weeks away from having a nuclear bomb. Biden’s Iran Envoy Wanted a Nuclear Deal. It May Have Cost Him His Career. (Brett Forrest, Wall Street Journal)
Is the U.S. prepared for another war? Elliot Ackerman, a retired U.S. Marine, argues it is not because of its eroding industrial base. While the U.S. is technologically ahead of most other countries, that may not help if we can’t build the weapons we’d need fast enough. His is another argument to rebuild the American manufacturing sector. The U.S. Isn’t Ready for a Modern War (The Free Press)
If you thought JD Vance’s side-eye look into the camera during the vice presidential debate was calculated, think again. Vance’s glance, which has been compared to faces pulled by a character from “The Office,” has become a meme on social media. Vance told the hosts of the “Ruthless” Podcast he was just looking at the timer positioned next to the camera. Victor Nava summarizes a few more details from Vance’s first interview after the debate. JD Vance reveals why he made viral ‘Jim Halpert’ face during VP debate with Tim Walz (The New York Post)
See you on the trail.
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